China is likely to persevere with tightening policies aimed at tackling surging inflation after the Chinese economy grew a robust 9.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, a mild slowdown from its first quarter pace.

　　中國有可能將堅持收緊政策，以遏制不斷飚漲的通脹。此前發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國經(jīng)濟在第二季度同比強勁增長9.5%，比第一季度的增速略有放緩。

　　Economic data released on Wednesday showed Chinese growth holding up well, defying those who feared government tightening measures could trigger a “hard landing” for the world’s second-largest economy.

　　周三發(fā)布的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國經(jīng)濟保持了良好的增長勢頭，沒有應(yīng)驗有關(guān)政府收緊措施可能引發(fā)全球第二大經(jīng)濟體“硬著陸”的預言。

　　After inflation hit a three-year high of 6.4 percent in June, China’s central bank raised interest rates last week for the fifth time since October and has also raised the portion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve nine times over the same period.

　　在6月份通脹達到6.4%這個三年高位后，中國央行自去年10月以來第5次上調(diào)利率（同期中國央行還已經(jīng)9次上調(diào)銀行存款準備金率）。

　　“Controlling inflation remains the top policy priority in the short term, and we continue to expect monetary policy to remain tight in the next few months,” said Peng Wensheng, an economist with CICC, the Chinese investment bank.

　　“控制通脹仍是短期內(nèi)的首要政策重點，我們?nèi)灶A計貨幣政策在未來幾個月內(nèi)將保持偏緊，”投資銀行中金公司(CICC)經(jīng)濟學家彭文生表示。

　　With Beijing trying since last year to limit bank lending, cool the scorching real estate market and slow rapid price increases, most economists had expected significantly lower GDP growth in the second quarter than the 9.7 percent year-on-year increase in the first three months.

　　鑒于中國政府從去年起就試圖限制銀行房貸，冷卻火爆的房產(chǎn)市場，并減緩價格的快速上漲，多數(shù)經(jīng)濟學家此前預期，第二季度的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速將明顯低于今年首季的9.7%。

　　The stronger-than-expected second quarter growth of 9.5 percent was boosted by growth in industrial production of 15.1 percent from a year earlier in June, up from 13.3 percent growth in May and the fastest pace in almost a year.

　　第二季度9.5%的增長強于預期水平，其推動因素是6月份工業(yè)產(chǎn)出同比增長15.1%，高于5月份的13.3%，而且是近一年來的最快增速。

　　Resilience in underlying growth will give policymakers room in case they need to implement further measures to tackle stubbornly high inflation.

　　基本經(jīng)濟增長的韌性，將給政策制定者帶來一定的回旋空間，讓他們在需要時能夠進一步采取措施，對付居高不下的通脹。

　　Politically sensitive food prices rose 14.4 percent from a year earlier in June, driven by a 57 percent year-on-year increase in the price of pork, but most economists believe inflation will peak this month and then start to moderate.

　　6月份，具有政治敏感性的食品價格同比上漲了14.4%，其主要驅(qū)動因素是豬肉價格同比上漲57%，但是，多數(shù)經(jīng)濟學家預期，通脹將在本月見頂，而后開始放緩。

　　Officials struck a confident note as they revealed the latest economic figures.

　　官員們在發(fā)布最新經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)時語氣自信。

　　“There is only a very small chance that China’s economy will witness a drastic and rapid decline,” said Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. He said the mild slowdown in the second quarter was expected and desirable and that the Chinese economy was “just like a person who can’t always run at an accelerated speed – he has to slow down in order to run well over the long term.”

　　“中國經(jīng)濟增長的動力仍然比較強勁，經(jīng)濟增速快速回落的風險比較小，”中國國家統(tǒng)計局(NBS)新聞發(fā)言人盛來運周三表示。他表示，第二季度增長略有放緩在意料之中，也是可取的，而且中國經(jīng)濟“就像一個人跑步一樣，不能老是以加速度在沖刺，他必須要放慢一下腳步，為了以后跑得更好”。

　　However, the raft of data released on Wednesday also showed that China’s growth remains seriously unbalanced and that Beijing is making little headway in its efforts to shift from over-reliance on investment towards a more consumption-driven model.

　　然而，周三發(fā)布的這批數(shù)據(jù)也顯示，中國經(jīng)濟增長仍然嚴重不平衡，同時中國政府在調(diào)整增長模式（從過度依賴投資轉(zhuǎn)向在更大程度上由消費驅(qū)動）方面進展甚微。

　　Investment in real estate and other fixed assets remained strong in the second quarter “indicating the persistent nature of over-investment in the country at present,” according to Liao Qun, an economist at Citic Bank International.

　　房地產(chǎn)和其它固定資產(chǎn)投資在第二季度仍很強勁。中信銀行國際(Citic Bank International)經(jīng)濟學家廖群稱，這“顯示出目前中國過度投資的持久性”。

　　Retail sales in June were up 17.7 percent from a year earlier but once the figure was adjusted for inflation analysts said this was the weakest monthly growth in at least six years.

　　6月份零售銷售額同比增長17.7%，但分析師們表示，經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后，這是至少6年來最疲軟的月度數(shù)據(jù)。

　　In fact, investment contributed nearly twice as much as consumption to yearly growth in the second quarter (5.9 percentage points compared to 3.3 points), according to estimates from Capital Economics.

　　事實上，根據(jù)凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的估算，在第二季度的年度增幅中，投資的貢獻（5.9個百分點）幾乎達到消費（3.3個百分點）的兩倍。

　　“Put another way, consumption, which already accounts for an exceptionally low level of spending, continued to fall as a share of GDP,” said Mark Williams, senior China economist at Capital Economics. “This pattern of growth is not sustainable, as the government has acknowledged; the longer investment-led growth continues, the greater the risk that capital is misallocated, undermining the banking sector, and that overcapacity becomes a serious issue.”

　　“換句話說，本來就導致支出水平低得出奇的消費，在GDP中的份額繼續(xù)下降，”凱投宏觀的資深中國經(jīng)濟學家馬克?威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示。“這種增長模式是不可持續(xù)的，就像政府已經(jīng)承認的那樣；投資主導的增長持續(xù)越久，資本配置不當?shù)娘L險就越大，這將打擊銀行業(yè)，同時產(chǎn)能過剩也將成為一個嚴重問題。”